Purpose: This paper assesses the short-term consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic on the market for childcare and speculates about potential long-term consequences of pandemic-related policy intervention. Design/methodology/approach: The paper uses basic statistics and data to describe changes in the market for childcare. Findings: Policy responses to the pandemic likely aggravated pre-existing trends in the market for childcare, drove up the cost of production at a time when demand was collapsed because of the pandemic, and ultimately resulted in systematic closures of childcare centers. These closures will be difficult to reverse due to the high cost of entry into the industry and overall low profitability. Research limitations/implications: The study is just a preliminary investigation in its current form that points to future areas of research. Originality/value: This paper summarizes the results of existing studies and draws some basic conclusions about the effects of policy intervention. (author abstract)